NFL '06

As a warm-up to my eagerly awaited NFL predictions for the coming year, Let's look at how I did last year:

Predicted Record/Real Record - games different

NFC East:
NYG - 12-4/8-8 - 4
Dallas - 10-6/9-7 - 1
Washington - 9-7/5-11 - 4
Philly - 8-8/10-6 - 2

NFC North:
Chicago - 11-5/13-3 - 2
Green Bay - 4-12/8-8 - 4
Minnesota- 3-13/6-10 - 3
Detroit - 1-15/3-13 - 2


NFC South:
Carolina - 12-4/8-8 - 4
Tampa Bay - 9-7/4-12 - 5
New Orleans - 8-8/10-6 - 2
Atlanta - 7-9/7-9 - 0


NFC West:
Seattle - 11-5/9-7 - 2
St. Louis - 4-12/8-8 - 4
Arizona - 3-13/5-11 - 2
San Francisco - 1-15/7-9 - 6

AFC East:
New England - 13-3/12-4 - 1
Miami - 9-7/6-10 - 3
New York - 5-11/10-6 - 5
Buffalo - 4-12/7-9 - 3


AFC North:
Pittsburgh - 11-5/8-8 - 3
Cincinnati - 10-6/8-8 - 2
Cleveland - 8-8/4-12 - 4
Baltimore - 6-10/13-3 - 7


AFC South:
Jacksonville - 11-5/8-8 - 3
Indianapolis - 10-6/12-4 - 2
Tennessee - 4-12/8-8 - 4
Houston - 3-13/6-10 - 3

AFC West:
Denver - 10-6/9-7 - 1
San Diego - 9-7/14-2 - 5
KC - 8-8/9-7 - 1
Oakland - 6-10/2-14 - 4

Okay, first, what did I get right? Well, I only nailed one exactly right - Atlanta at 7-9. I got five within one game. And I got (and I think this is the best measure of success, in that it's the measure I did best in) 12 within two games of being right.

Now, if you just chose randomly, you'd have done better than that. You need no further proof that this is not a gambling site, nor that I'm absolutely hopeless at picking winners.

For the many wrong picks, let's start with the one I missed by 7 games - Baltimore. Yikes. They were better on both sides of the ball than I'd though, and also their division was much weaker than I thought it would be - the other three teams were a collected 9 games worse than I'd predicted.

I was six wrong on San Francisco, and five wrong on the Jets and Bucs. With the 49ers, I just don't like their coaching, and I don't believe in their QB. Their RB - Frank Gore - came out of nowhere (or at least I was blind to him). Once again, their division was weaker than I though it would be by four games, and the NFC was overall a real weak sister.

With the Jets, again, I didn't like the coach. In this case, I've become a believer in Mangini, while I still think the 49ers Nolan was an unqualified hire who's topped out. While many are putting San Fran into the 'rising' column, I think they're going to drop like eighth grade French (thanks, Carl).

I also thought Jon Gruden was a better coach than his record. I had the Bucs rebounding to 9-7, but they dropped to 4-12 instead. I didn't think Gruden was capable of 4-12. I'd expected the Bucs to do what Baltimore did - both are defense-first teams coached by former offensive geniuses.

By far my worst call was the number of 4+ wrong predictions: 13 of them. Ouch. That's more than I got within two. I'd say I was slipping, but you have to actually rise before you can fall.

Stil, I'll take another shot at it this year. And I'm happy that my Pats prediction was only off by one. Here's a preview of this year's calls:

Pats 16-0.