Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Startling

I found this story to be a bit of a shock. Like most people, I view Iran as a bad actor in the world. There is no love in my heart for a Mullahs who suppress their people, promise to exterminate my people, and are generally unscrupulous in their plays at becoming a regional power. They are the bank behind Hezbollah, an organization with gallons of Jewish blood on their hands and a craving for more. And, not satisfied to make the present a more miserable place to be, they attack the past by holding an all-haters party for Holocaust deniers. I was 15 when they took the US embassy in Teheran and I remember how it made me feel.

So, no friend am I of any Iranian policy - not to say any Iranian, as the 25,000-strong Jewish community, dating back to the 6th century, is the region's second largest. Of course, there were 80,000 before the revolution made the country unlivable for Jews.

Naturally, Iran's excuse that they only want to build nuclear reactors for domestic power needs sees ridiculous on its face. After all, they are on top of the world's second-largest oil and gas reserves. They are the world's fourth-largest petroleum exporter. And they need nuclear energy? That's absurd on its face. What would they do with the power? Open hockey rinks? I mean, how many blow-dryers do they need to run at the same time?

The Junta is eyeing Iran as their next great failure. They're satisfied that Iraq is settled into being the worst strategic disaster in American history. Katrina proved that they can make disasters happen domestically. What's next? The clock is ticking - less than two years left to completely ruin everything that America has ever stood for.

So Iran. Good. They're poking and prodding and insulting, doing their best to pick a fight that the Junta cannot possibly handle. I hear Dick Cheney personally slapped an Iranian cab driver in the back of the head (dear lawyers: no he didn't, and he didn't shoot him in the face, either). Clearly, the Iranian nuclear issue keeps them in the bulls-eye, no matter what else is said or done. Iran needs Three Mile Island like the Titanic needs more seawater.

But here's the thing: they actually do need nuclear energy. They are actually having a domestic energy crisis.
"Some analysts say that if this acute imbalance between stagnant production
and rising demand at home continues unchecked, Iran will have no oil left over
to export within a decade. Its oil exports, totaling $47 billion last year,
account for half the government’s revenue.

"They have a perfect storm of problems feeding into each other," said
Robert Murphy, an analyst at PFC Energy, a consulting firm in Washington. He
estimated that Iran might have no more oil to export by around 2015 if it did
not rein in runaway consumption and reverse the long-term decline in its oil
production.

"The domestic energy situation is as big as the international issue, and
feeds into it in a very significant way," he said."

Where does that leave us? Iran cannot be allowed to attain nuclear weapons. They are dangerous enough without them. They are bug-nut crazy enough to use them. But nuclear energy?

This is where grown-up diplomats from real State Departments can help. The situation is crying out for diplomacy. How about, f'rinstance, we help them out with their energy situation and they stop being such bad actors all over the place. Hmmm? No more RPG's for Hezbollah? No more Holiday Inn treatment for terrorists? And as a bonus, by working with them instead of against them, you get them to produce more oil - which is, like, your very favorite stuff in the whole world.

It's times like these that I really miss having smart reasonable people in charge. The dumb crazy ones just ruin everything.

Working with Iran will be bumpy. And Israel won't like it too much. But we shouldn't be trying to be, like, best friends forever with Iran. Just talk to them enough to not fight another deadly endless terror war against another intractable zealous foe. At least not until we're done with the one we're already fighting.

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