Super Bowl
I've been waffling and vacillating over which team will be the NFL champion after the Super Bowl. While the game has made itself somewhat irrelevant by not including the real champion New England Patriots, it's still worth a moment's pause to consider.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a 3.5 point favorite, and certainly have a lot going for them. Their offense is dangerous because they are well balanced. When "Big" Ben Roethlisberger is playing, they have an effective passing attack. Which means that a defense that loads up to stop their running game will pay a price. Teams that play too much coverage risk getting run over by the Bus or run around by Fast Willie Parker. The OL is excellent and can block well in both phases of the game.
But defense is what Pittsburgh is known for. As predicted on this very site, the Steeler blitz was able to rattle Peyton Manning and Jake Plummer in successive weeks. They play a 3-4 that has good blitzers across the LB corps and blocks of granite on the DL. And they're not new to the scheme - the 3-4 has been the defense there for the decade that "Coach Chin" has been the head guy.
They can rush the passer, they can stone the run, and when all else fails they can cover. SS Troy Palumalu is having a great post-season, hitting everything that moves and actually covering a few guys as well. His enthusiasm is obviously contagious, and the whole defense has played better with his emergence as a physical and vocal leader.
That's all well and good, but Bill "Coach Chin" Cowher worries me. He's now 2-4 in championship games and comes into this Super Bowl with an 0-1 mark in the big show. Can he coach at this level? Or is he more in the Marty Schottenheimer/Tony Dungy class of guys who can beat up on the wusses in the regular season but can get their team to play up to a championship level?
Just by reaching his second Super Bowl, he's out-done that group (actually, he did that in 1995 with his first trip). Cowher has a propensity to pull out all the stops when he's losing, which has not caused any drop in his lack of success on the larger stages. He's a good front runner, and his team will do well if they're playing with a lead.
But his opponent is a guy who's actually won one of these things. Mike Holmgren led Green Bay to its sole Favre-quarterbacked championship (and, the next season, lost the championship to Denver). He started fresh with an under-achieving group in Seattle and through patience and his force of will pushed them to the highest level.
I remember thinking, when re-alignment put Seattle in the NFC: "they're not going to get a sniff of success now. They'll never make the playoffs in the NFC." How times have changed.
He took Green Bay cast-off Matt Hasselback and turned him into the starting Pro Bowl QB. He pushed RB Shaun Alexander to league MVP status. The defense improved along with the offense, to the point that they are a confident unit that led the league in sacks this season.
The AFC is a much stronger conference, and the Pittsburgh team has played tougher opposition throughout the season and in the playoffs. Playing the Patriots and Broncos and Colts is great practice - the Seahawks receivers will seem plodding and sloppy after facing the Colts and Broncos WR's. The Steelers are up for a fight.
But football is a coaches game, and I like the 'Hawks staff better. Mike Holmgren was a Super Bowl winner as an assistant in San Francisco and as head guy in Green Bay. His players will be better prepared. As an 'X's and O's" coach, he's miles ahead of the Chin. He will have some surprises on offense that the Steelers won't have seen before.
The teams are close enough in talent for that to make a difference. Holmgren will do his best to jump to an early lead, knowing that Cowher doesn't handle trailing very well. Look for early mid-range to deep passing with a lot of shifting and different formations. They'll try to use Palumalu's aggressiveness against him and get him to jump some routes shallow and then throw behind him.
Chin is a lot like me when I play Madden on the Xbox. When I trail or give up a bad TD, I tend to over-reach and chuck it too much. That leads to more picks and 3-and-outs as I put it up for grabs or throw low-percentage passes instead of doing what I do best - the methodical run-pass balanced offense.
Like Bill Belichick's baiting of Mike Martz in Super Bowl 36 ("you can beat my pass defense - don't wuss out and start running your NFL MVP Marshall Faulk..."), Holmgren will have Cowher pressing and getting away from his game plan early.
To sum up: Seattle, 31-24.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a 3.5 point favorite, and certainly have a lot going for them. Their offense is dangerous because they are well balanced. When "Big" Ben Roethlisberger is playing, they have an effective passing attack. Which means that a defense that loads up to stop their running game will pay a price. Teams that play too much coverage risk getting run over by the Bus or run around by Fast Willie Parker. The OL is excellent and can block well in both phases of the game.
But defense is what Pittsburgh is known for. As predicted on this very site, the Steeler blitz was able to rattle Peyton Manning and Jake Plummer in successive weeks. They play a 3-4 that has good blitzers across the LB corps and blocks of granite on the DL. And they're not new to the scheme - the 3-4 has been the defense there for the decade that "Coach Chin" has been the head guy.
They can rush the passer, they can stone the run, and when all else fails they can cover. SS Troy Palumalu is having a great post-season, hitting everything that moves and actually covering a few guys as well. His enthusiasm is obviously contagious, and the whole defense has played better with his emergence as a physical and vocal leader.
That's all well and good, but Bill "Coach Chin" Cowher worries me. He's now 2-4 in championship games and comes into this Super Bowl with an 0-1 mark in the big show. Can he coach at this level? Or is he more in the Marty Schottenheimer/Tony Dungy class of guys who can beat up on the wusses in the regular season but can get their team to play up to a championship level?
Just by reaching his second Super Bowl, he's out-done that group (actually, he did that in 1995 with his first trip). Cowher has a propensity to pull out all the stops when he's losing, which has not caused any drop in his lack of success on the larger stages. He's a good front runner, and his team will do well if they're playing with a lead.
But his opponent is a guy who's actually won one of these things. Mike Holmgren led Green Bay to its sole Favre-quarterbacked championship (and, the next season, lost the championship to Denver). He started fresh with an under-achieving group in Seattle and through patience and his force of will pushed them to the highest level.
I remember thinking, when re-alignment put Seattle in the NFC: "they're not going to get a sniff of success now. They'll never make the playoffs in the NFC." How times have changed.
He took Green Bay cast-off Matt Hasselback and turned him into the starting Pro Bowl QB. He pushed RB Shaun Alexander to league MVP status. The defense improved along with the offense, to the point that they are a confident unit that led the league in sacks this season.
The AFC is a much stronger conference, and the Pittsburgh team has played tougher opposition throughout the season and in the playoffs. Playing the Patriots and Broncos and Colts is great practice - the Seahawks receivers will seem plodding and sloppy after facing the Colts and Broncos WR's. The Steelers are up for a fight.
But football is a coaches game, and I like the 'Hawks staff better. Mike Holmgren was a Super Bowl winner as an assistant in San Francisco and as head guy in Green Bay. His players will be better prepared. As an 'X's and O's" coach, he's miles ahead of the Chin. He will have some surprises on offense that the Steelers won't have seen before.
The teams are close enough in talent for that to make a difference. Holmgren will do his best to jump to an early lead, knowing that Cowher doesn't handle trailing very well. Look for early mid-range to deep passing with a lot of shifting and different formations. They'll try to use Palumalu's aggressiveness against him and get him to jump some routes shallow and then throw behind him.
Chin is a lot like me when I play Madden on the Xbox. When I trail or give up a bad TD, I tend to over-reach and chuck it too much. That leads to more picks and 3-and-outs as I put it up for grabs or throw low-percentage passes instead of doing what I do best - the methodical run-pass balanced offense.
Like Bill Belichick's baiting of Mike Martz in Super Bowl 36 ("you can beat my pass defense - don't wuss out and start running your NFL MVP Marshall Faulk..."), Holmgren will have Cowher pressing and getting away from his game plan early.
To sum up: Seattle, 31-24.
posted by fiduciary at 9:01 AM
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