Are You Ready...
It's a divisional playoff weekend. This is normally the weekend when the well-rested home teams, sitting out last week with a bye, clean up on their over-worked opponents. And sure, since this playoff format began, the home team in this round wins by a 5-1 margin. And since there are only four games in the round, less than a single visiting team should win. So perhaps just the Washington defense will advance, leaving their pathetic offense in Seattle.
The "however" is this: however, I like three visiting teams to win. Let's have a look:
SEATTLE (-9.5) over Washington: Okay, this is the home team I like. Apparently there needs to be at least one big walrus-looking head coach to go deep into the playoffs. For the last five years, it's been Andy Reid of the Eagles, but before Andy it was his former boss, Mike Holmgren, walrus-coaching the Packers.
The Washington football team is well-coached and no doubt well-motivated. They beat Seattle in Washington this season, but that was the usual Seattle bizarro road performance where they just flat refuse to win under any circumstances.
This time, they face a Washington team that just flat out could not move the ball against Tampa last week. The defense beat the Bucs all by themselves, but that won't be enough this week. I do think the Washington offense will get on the plane this week and show for a bit. Seattle's defense is not Tampa's - but it's not bad, either.
Look for a close first half, but Seattle's superior offense will make some plays and pull ahead. Their walrus won't let them play too loose and give Washington the turnovers it would need to pull off the upset. The Seattle ground game is good enough to start fast and finish slow, so they should keep it on the ground from start to finish. Even though QB Matt Hasselbeck has proven to be a top guy over the last couple of years, the smart thing would be to let NFL MVP Shaun Alexander win this one for them.
Carolina over CHICAGO (-3): here we go with the road dogs. As we all know by now, a three-point home line indicates that the teams are even - the home team takes three for sleeping in their own beds the night before the game. It's the 'bed bonus.' Chicago is a great defense attached to a garbage offense (see: "Washington" above). You can't advance in the playoffs with only half a team. Pretenders like these Bears get the hook pretty quick.
The Panthers are anything but pretenders. They are a playoff-savvy team that's been to the Holy Land before. They are mentally tough and extremely well-coached. The biggest difference between defensive-minded Lovey Smith and John Fox is that Fox actually accomplished something before getting the head coaching gig - he coached the Giants defense to a Super Bowl. Lovey had success by association with the Tampa pedigree of defensive coaching - Tony Dungy, Herm Edwards - but never created a top defense or coached a defense to a Super Bowl.
The Panthers are tenacious and play all phases of the game. The caveat is that QB Jake Delhomme is starting to show a bit of Peyton. That is, when he made his improbable Super Bowl run two years ago, he seems like a young Tom Brady - up from nowhere (NFL Europe), hardworking, smart fiery - but in his current incarnation, he seems to be flopping around the field like it's Days of our Lives. He's calling penalties. He's flapping audibles. He's 'working' the refs. He's visibly upset with his team-mates when errors happen. He is, in short, morphing into a poor man's Manning rather than a poor man's Tom Brady.
And which pauper would you rather have?
PITTSBURGH over Indianapolis (-9.5): Yes, the Steelers are going on the road to beat the Colts. That is, they win outright, not just gain the pyrrhic victory of covering the nine and a half points. I like the Steelers because they're a character team. Their coach, Bill Cowher, might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he can get his guys fired up - and that's what it's going to take to win this.
This will be a contest of intensity, and the soft and character-less Colts won't be able to bring enough to match the Steelers. Pittsburgh is one of the better blitzing teams and will be able to get to Manning early and often. They will be in the Colts' faces all day - can the Colts respond? No.
For Indy's part, they are the team that peaked too early. They went 13-0 and absorbed all the accolades. I remember quite clearly the day they went 13-0 and tied (or set) some regular-season record, Peyton tried to downplay it in his own way by saying: "we have the hats and the tee-shirts, now we have to get past it…" Hats? Tee-shirts? The Pats went 21 straight for an all-time record that meant something, and none of them would talk about it. It was acknowledged in about three words.
Hats and tees? For a 13 game win streak that got them no Lombardi? These guys are lightweights. They've already won as much as they care to this year. Sure, they have lots of talent, but they are a soft team that has failed every gut-check they've been faced with. Since going 13-1 and missing the perfect record, they've shut down. They haven played a game that meant anything since November.
And in that first loss, San Diego pounded Manning mercilessly. Rookie OLB Shawn Merriman took his lunch money and gave him a swirly (head in the toilet bowl, ker-flush). Other members of the Chargers front seven pantsed him and gave him various forms of the classic "wedgie."
Bill Cowher has reviewed that tape. The Steelers will be coming.
On offense, QB Ben Roethlisberger has more poise and experience. The running game should be effective.
Since the Colts have several prepared excuses and did win a lot in the regular season, they will be satisfied with getting this far. Look for Manning to get the MVP in the Pro Bowl game again.
Patriots over BRONCOS (-3): Tom Brady vs. Jake Plummer. Anything more need be said?
At the time they played this season, the Pats were both hurt and ineffective. They were utterly depleted in the secondary. And the front seven was only a pale shadow of itself. They were playing without Richard Seymour. No Rodney Harrison, no Tedy Bruschi. The two inside linebackers - the key to the 3-4 run defense - were Money Beisel and Chad Brown. Both were new to the system. Both were ineffective. On offense, there was no Corey Dillon, no Kevin Faulk, no Matt Light.
Light and Harrison are gone for the year, but their replacements have had time to learn the system - the plays and the attitude. Seymour is back. The DB's have developed. The ILB's are Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi - with the now-more-experienced Beisel and Brown coming in relief. In short, Belichick and DC Eric Mangini have re-trained an entirely new (except for Eugene Wilson) defensive secondary. They moved Vrabel inside and have Bruschi and Seymour on the field. This is a very different and very dangerous defense.
On offense, Brady is no longer the only thing. While Dillon wasn't reminding anyone of Jim Brown last week, the running game was effective enough to keep the defense from loading up on the pass. The Patriots are playing well in all phases of the game. And that's bad news for anyone standing in their way.
Plus, Belichick has the tape from their previous match-up this year. And you don't want Belichick to have tape of you. You really don't.
That leaves a couple of interesting match-ups for next week. Carolina at Seattle is anybody's game. The Steelers will be at New England. Can Bill Cowher finally beat the Pats in a championship game? He couldn't do it at home - maybe he can do it on the road. If they can win in Foxboro, they will be only the second team in NFL history to win three road games on the way to the Super Bowl. The other team?
The 1985 Patriots.
The "however" is this: however, I like three visiting teams to win. Let's have a look:
SEATTLE (-9.5) over Washington: Okay, this is the home team I like. Apparently there needs to be at least one big walrus-looking head coach to go deep into the playoffs. For the last five years, it's been Andy Reid of the Eagles, but before Andy it was his former boss, Mike Holmgren, walrus-coaching the Packers.
The Washington football team is well-coached and no doubt well-motivated. They beat Seattle in Washington this season, but that was the usual Seattle bizarro road performance where they just flat refuse to win under any circumstances.
This time, they face a Washington team that just flat out could not move the ball against Tampa last week. The defense beat the Bucs all by themselves, but that won't be enough this week. I do think the Washington offense will get on the plane this week and show for a bit. Seattle's defense is not Tampa's - but it's not bad, either.
Look for a close first half, but Seattle's superior offense will make some plays and pull ahead. Their walrus won't let them play too loose and give Washington the turnovers it would need to pull off the upset. The Seattle ground game is good enough to start fast and finish slow, so they should keep it on the ground from start to finish. Even though QB Matt Hasselbeck has proven to be a top guy over the last couple of years, the smart thing would be to let NFL MVP Shaun Alexander win this one for them.
Carolina over CHICAGO (-3): here we go with the road dogs. As we all know by now, a three-point home line indicates that the teams are even - the home team takes three for sleeping in their own beds the night before the game. It's the 'bed bonus.' Chicago is a great defense attached to a garbage offense (see: "Washington" above). You can't advance in the playoffs with only half a team. Pretenders like these Bears get the hook pretty quick.
The Panthers are anything but pretenders. They are a playoff-savvy team that's been to the Holy Land before. They are mentally tough and extremely well-coached. The biggest difference between defensive-minded Lovey Smith and John Fox is that Fox actually accomplished something before getting the head coaching gig - he coached the Giants defense to a Super Bowl. Lovey had success by association with the Tampa pedigree of defensive coaching - Tony Dungy, Herm Edwards - but never created a top defense or coached a defense to a Super Bowl.
The Panthers are tenacious and play all phases of the game. The caveat is that QB Jake Delhomme is starting to show a bit of Peyton. That is, when he made his improbable Super Bowl run two years ago, he seems like a young Tom Brady - up from nowhere (NFL Europe), hardworking, smart fiery - but in his current incarnation, he seems to be flopping around the field like it's Days of our Lives. He's calling penalties. He's flapping audibles. He's 'working' the refs. He's visibly upset with his team-mates when errors happen. He is, in short, morphing into a poor man's Manning rather than a poor man's Tom Brady.
And which pauper would you rather have?
PITTSBURGH over Indianapolis (-9.5): Yes, the Steelers are going on the road to beat the Colts. That is, they win outright, not just gain the pyrrhic victory of covering the nine and a half points. I like the Steelers because they're a character team. Their coach, Bill Cowher, might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he can get his guys fired up - and that's what it's going to take to win this.
This will be a contest of intensity, and the soft and character-less Colts won't be able to bring enough to match the Steelers. Pittsburgh is one of the better blitzing teams and will be able to get to Manning early and often. They will be in the Colts' faces all day - can the Colts respond? No.
For Indy's part, they are the team that peaked too early. They went 13-0 and absorbed all the accolades. I remember quite clearly the day they went 13-0 and tied (or set) some regular-season record, Peyton tried to downplay it in his own way by saying: "we have the hats and the tee-shirts, now we have to get past it…" Hats? Tee-shirts? The Pats went 21 straight for an all-time record that meant something, and none of them would talk about it. It was acknowledged in about three words.
Hats and tees? For a 13 game win streak that got them no Lombardi? These guys are lightweights. They've already won as much as they care to this year. Sure, they have lots of talent, but they are a soft team that has failed every gut-check they've been faced with. Since going 13-1 and missing the perfect record, they've shut down. They haven played a game that meant anything since November.
And in that first loss, San Diego pounded Manning mercilessly. Rookie OLB Shawn Merriman took his lunch money and gave him a swirly (head in the toilet bowl, ker-flush). Other members of the Chargers front seven pantsed him and gave him various forms of the classic "wedgie."
Bill Cowher has reviewed that tape. The Steelers will be coming.
On offense, QB Ben Roethlisberger has more poise and experience. The running game should be effective.
Since the Colts have several prepared excuses and did win a lot in the regular season, they will be satisfied with getting this far. Look for Manning to get the MVP in the Pro Bowl game again.
Patriots over BRONCOS (-3): Tom Brady vs. Jake Plummer. Anything more need be said?
At the time they played this season, the Pats were both hurt and ineffective. They were utterly depleted in the secondary. And the front seven was only a pale shadow of itself. They were playing without Richard Seymour. No Rodney Harrison, no Tedy Bruschi. The two inside linebackers - the key to the 3-4 run defense - were Money Beisel and Chad Brown. Both were new to the system. Both were ineffective. On offense, there was no Corey Dillon, no Kevin Faulk, no Matt Light.
Light and Harrison are gone for the year, but their replacements have had time to learn the system - the plays and the attitude. Seymour is back. The DB's have developed. The ILB's are Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi - with the now-more-experienced Beisel and Brown coming in relief. In short, Belichick and DC Eric Mangini have re-trained an entirely new (except for Eugene Wilson) defensive secondary. They moved Vrabel inside and have Bruschi and Seymour on the field. This is a very different and very dangerous defense.
On offense, Brady is no longer the only thing. While Dillon wasn't reminding anyone of Jim Brown last week, the running game was effective enough to keep the defense from loading up on the pass. The Patriots are playing well in all phases of the game. And that's bad news for anyone standing in their way.
Plus, Belichick has the tape from their previous match-up this year. And you don't want Belichick to have tape of you. You really don't.
That leaves a couple of interesting match-ups for next week. Carolina at Seattle is anybody's game. The Steelers will be at New England. Can Bill Cowher finally beat the Pats in a championship game? He couldn't do it at home - maybe he can do it on the road. If they can win in Foxboro, they will be only the second team in NFL history to win three road games on the way to the Super Bowl. The other team?
The 1985 Patriots.
posted by fiduciary at 10:08 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home