Draft Day
It's draft day again in the NFL. I haven't really kept up with it this year, which is a shame because it looks to be an interesting show today. The Raiders are up first, having cashed in on Art Shell's ability to lost to virtually any other coach at the professional, and I daresay, college levels. One thing you can depend on with Oakland: they will blow the pick.
Really, their best bet is to trade down and cash in on multiple first-day picks. They have virtually no chance to compete, so why not load up on kids? But of course, what remains of Al Davis is on a forty-year Ahab-like quest to prove that he's better and smarter than the NFL. He's no where near as charming as as Don Quixote, and his mission has a significantly lower chance of succeeding.
The mistake I think he'll make will be in taking Brady Quinn from Notre Dame over either Jamarcus Russell from LSU or that WR Calvin Johnson fror Georgia Tech. Quinn flamed out in the pressure games at ND. Plus, ND coach Carlie Weis would be all over the media if he really thought this kid was special. I think this will be another Mirer/Bledsoe or Manning/Leaf - Quinn will flop and Russell will be a star.
The can't miss guy is supposed to be Johnson. Apparently he's a really special. We'll see.
Looking at the Patriots, they have some obvious holes on the roster, but far fewer holes than this time last year. They've addressed all their potential problem areas, though the solution in some is less than complete.
They have a problem at LB, but have partially addressed it with the signing of phenom multi-role Adalius Thomas. Thomas can run with RB's, cover, and hit with OG's. He's 270 lbs and plays like 170. But the rest of the LB corps are getting old.
Playing Thomas with Rosy Colvin bookended at the other OLB spot leaves Bruschi and Vrable inside. But ideally you want Thomas to be able to play multi-roles, and for that you need depth at LB, which this team does noty have. It would help if Junior Seau could come back for another final year. He was extremely effective as a run-stuffing ILB last year before breaking his arm (with Seau, we win the Super Bowl).
That said, the Pats absolutely despise rookie LB's. The few that Belichick has drafted in the pats few years have flopped. The only exception was Tully Banta-Can, who had one decent year as a starter and fled to SD in free agency. Thanks for the memories.
So I don't think we'll see a LB taken on day one - the Pats have two firsts and a third (their second went to Miami for WR/PR Wes Welker). And Belichick believes in developing OL from late rounds into starters - except for OLT, the key spot on the line. If the team believes (as others have said) that OLT Matt Light has lost it, there could be a pick there. But I don't see it - there's some quality depth on the bench right now, and other guys can play (and have played) the OLT spot effectively if Light is no longer the answer.
So no OL pick.
The other trouble spot is WR. If they'd re-signed Deion Branch last season, they would have won the Super Bowl. They were so close and virtually any break or improvement would have won it for them. Anyway, they've added Donte Stallworth, Welker, and Kelly Washington,. all quality guys to add to Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, second year second round pick Chad Jackson, Kelvin Kight (recently re-signed), Bam Childress, and possibly a return by the great Troy Brown.
I think they're set. So no WR.
QB - sure. Tom Brady needs the competition.
TE - we lost Daniel Graham in free agency, but picked up Kyle Brady to replace him. Not a bad trade - Brady can block, but is not as athletic as Graham. No prob. Ben Watson came into his own last season. Because of the lack of a WR threat, Brady tried to squeeze the ball to Watson too often and defenses keyed on him. With the decent WR's we have now, Watson could go all-pro this year. He's an amazingly athletic TE. Garrett Mills and Dave Thomas were both effective as H-backs/TE's in their rookie season last year, so there is quality depth.
So no TE.
Our DL is young deep and talented. If we get any depth there, it won't be Day one. No DL.
That leaves two areas of the field where I believe the picks will fall. First, DB. Asante Samual tied the NFL lead for picks with 10 last year, and now wants to get paid. We could easily lose him, so we signed Tory James to back up or start in that slot. We have Randall Gay (injury-plagued as he is), Ellis Hobbs, and Chad Scott for corners. With injuries decimating the secondary in the past few years, it's smart to go here early and often.
The same is true for the two safety spots. The great Rodney Harrison can't seem to stay on the field anymore, which is tragic. This is a different defense with Harrison's intelligence, swagger, coverage, and freight-train hitting on the field. Eugene Wilson is not even listed on the NFL.com roster for the team - go check it out. Wilson was switched to FS from CB in his rookie year, and can be effective in that spot. He wasn't the same guy without Harrison back there, and then got hurt.
I'd say safety is the #1 priority on the defense. They seeem to get hurt more often, and we have less depth there. At the end of the searingly painful AFC Championship game lats year, we were playing Rashad Baker and Med Mitchell - third or worse on the depth chart - against Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. Not a pretty sight.
The other spot (have you guessed?) is RB. Corey Dillon's wheels came off completely last year. He got old and tired virtually overnight. He's been released (after some BS about wanting to go play somewhere else) and is expected to retire. He gets the departure salute from me - he was key in our last SB win, and you can't say that about a lot of guys on the planet.
But Laurance Maroney had his own troubles last year. He was dazzling at times, showing big play speed and a lot of toughness. But he hurt his shoulder badly and we don't know if he can be an every-down back in the NFL. He was great in a thunder-and-lightening scheme along with Dillon, but the jury's out on him being a featured back.
So I think the Pats go RB with one of their first round picks.
What I expect is some sort of surprise move by Belichick. The Pats are the only team in the draft with more than one first round pick (at 24 & 28), and that gives him some leverage. There's been some talk about a shoulder injury to RB Adrian Peterson which may cause him to fall. If Peterson - or anybody else Belichick likes - falls to the 15-20 area, look for the Pats to make a move up the board.
Belichick is great at taking players based on talent and value over need. And his draft last year was brilliant. The Colts were stunned when we took Maroney - who would have gone for 2000 yards in that Colt offense.
If there is anybody at any position that Belichick and GM Scott Pioli think is special, they'll get him. That's one thing that Jimmy Johnson said he discussed with Belichick: if you identify a guy you want, go get him.
It should be interesting watching the Raiders and Lions take the exactly wrong guy again this year, and the Patriots take exactly the right guy 25 picks later.
Really, their best bet is to trade down and cash in on multiple first-day picks. They have virtually no chance to compete, so why not load up on kids? But of course, what remains of Al Davis is on a forty-year Ahab-like quest to prove that he's better and smarter than the NFL. He's no where near as charming as as Don Quixote, and his mission has a significantly lower chance of succeeding.
The mistake I think he'll make will be in taking Brady Quinn from Notre Dame over either Jamarcus Russell from LSU or that WR Calvin Johnson fror Georgia Tech. Quinn flamed out in the pressure games at ND. Plus, ND coach Carlie Weis would be all over the media if he really thought this kid was special. I think this will be another Mirer/Bledsoe or Manning/Leaf - Quinn will flop and Russell will be a star.
The can't miss guy is supposed to be Johnson. Apparently he's a really special. We'll see.
Looking at the Patriots, they have some obvious holes on the roster, but far fewer holes than this time last year. They've addressed all their potential problem areas, though the solution in some is less than complete.
They have a problem at LB, but have partially addressed it with the signing of phenom multi-role Adalius Thomas. Thomas can run with RB's, cover, and hit with OG's. He's 270 lbs and plays like 170. But the rest of the LB corps are getting old.
Playing Thomas with Rosy Colvin bookended at the other OLB spot leaves Bruschi and Vrable inside. But ideally you want Thomas to be able to play multi-roles, and for that you need depth at LB, which this team does noty have. It would help if Junior Seau could come back for another final year. He was extremely effective as a run-stuffing ILB last year before breaking his arm (with Seau, we win the Super Bowl).
That said, the Pats absolutely despise rookie LB's. The few that Belichick has drafted in the pats few years have flopped. The only exception was Tully Banta-Can, who had one decent year as a starter and fled to SD in free agency. Thanks for the memories.
So I don't think we'll see a LB taken on day one - the Pats have two firsts and a third (their second went to Miami for WR/PR Wes Welker). And Belichick believes in developing OL from late rounds into starters - except for OLT, the key spot on the line. If the team believes (as others have said) that OLT Matt Light has lost it, there could be a pick there. But I don't see it - there's some quality depth on the bench right now, and other guys can play (and have played) the OLT spot effectively if Light is no longer the answer.
So no OL pick.
The other trouble spot is WR. If they'd re-signed Deion Branch last season, they would have won the Super Bowl. They were so close and virtually any break or improvement would have won it for them. Anyway, they've added Donte Stallworth, Welker, and Kelly Washington,. all quality guys to add to Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, second year second round pick Chad Jackson, Kelvin Kight (recently re-signed), Bam Childress, and possibly a return by the great Troy Brown.
I think they're set. So no WR.
QB - sure. Tom Brady needs the competition.
TE - we lost Daniel Graham in free agency, but picked up Kyle Brady to replace him. Not a bad trade - Brady can block, but is not as athletic as Graham. No prob. Ben Watson came into his own last season. Because of the lack of a WR threat, Brady tried to squeeze the ball to Watson too often and defenses keyed on him. With the decent WR's we have now, Watson could go all-pro this year. He's an amazingly athletic TE. Garrett Mills and Dave Thomas were both effective as H-backs/TE's in their rookie season last year, so there is quality depth.
So no TE.
Our DL is young deep and talented. If we get any depth there, it won't be Day one. No DL.
That leaves two areas of the field where I believe the picks will fall. First, DB. Asante Samual tied the NFL lead for picks with 10 last year, and now wants to get paid. We could easily lose him, so we signed Tory James to back up or start in that slot. We have Randall Gay (injury-plagued as he is), Ellis Hobbs, and Chad Scott for corners. With injuries decimating the secondary in the past few years, it's smart to go here early and often.
The same is true for the two safety spots. The great Rodney Harrison can't seem to stay on the field anymore, which is tragic. This is a different defense with Harrison's intelligence, swagger, coverage, and freight-train hitting on the field. Eugene Wilson is not even listed on the NFL.com roster for the team - go check it out. Wilson was switched to FS from CB in his rookie year, and can be effective in that spot. He wasn't the same guy without Harrison back there, and then got hurt.
I'd say safety is the #1 priority on the defense. They seeem to get hurt more often, and we have less depth there. At the end of the searingly painful AFC Championship game lats year, we were playing Rashad Baker and Med Mitchell - third or worse on the depth chart - against Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. Not a pretty sight.
The other spot (have you guessed?) is RB. Corey Dillon's wheels came off completely last year. He got old and tired virtually overnight. He's been released (after some BS about wanting to go play somewhere else) and is expected to retire. He gets the departure salute from me - he was key in our last SB win, and you can't say that about a lot of guys on the planet.
But Laurance Maroney had his own troubles last year. He was dazzling at times, showing big play speed and a lot of toughness. But he hurt his shoulder badly and we don't know if he can be an every-down back in the NFL. He was great in a thunder-and-lightening scheme along with Dillon, but the jury's out on him being a featured back.
So I think the Pats go RB with one of their first round picks.
What I expect is some sort of surprise move by Belichick. The Pats are the only team in the draft with more than one first round pick (at 24 & 28), and that gives him some leverage. There's been some talk about a shoulder injury to RB Adrian Peterson which may cause him to fall. If Peterson - or anybody else Belichick likes - falls to the 15-20 area, look for the Pats to make a move up the board.
Belichick is great at taking players based on talent and value over need. And his draft last year was brilliant. The Colts were stunned when we took Maroney - who would have gone for 2000 yards in that Colt offense.
If there is anybody at any position that Belichick and GM Scott Pioli think is special, they'll get him. That's one thing that Jimmy Johnson said he discussed with Belichick: if you identify a guy you want, go get him.
It should be interesting watching the Raiders and Lions take the exactly wrong guy again this year, and the Patriots take exactly the right guy 25 picks later.
posted by fiduciary at 8:18 AM
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