Just Wild
It's Wild Card Weekend in the NFL, so who cares that Americans have resumed control of the American Congress? The Anti-American thugs who had trapped that institution for more than a decade are in abeyance, so it's time to talk football.
Let's start with the JV Conference, the NFC.
Dallas at Seattle:
Dallas is 5th in the league on offense and 13th on defense. Seattle is 19th both ways. So the 5th offense gets to dance around on the head of the 19th defense, right? Well, kind of, except that Dallas has the 24th ranked pass defense. Uh oh. Sure, Seattle is on;y the 20th pass offense, but you have to remember that the forgettable Seneca Wallace started at QB for a lot of the season. Seattle will be able to pass against Dallas. That's also a bit of a mystery, because Dallas has some studs on defense. Both teams will score, but Seattle has the edge in experience and a soggy, coffee-soaked home field.
It's funny to think that this game matches Tuna Parcelles against Walrus Holmgren. Last time these two met in the playoff was when the Tuna's Pats lost to Holmgren's Packers while Parcelles was working on his exit to Brooklyn. Seriously, Parcelles was negotiating a contract with the New York Jets to go coach them while he should have been preparing to play Brett Favre and Reggie White with the Packers. And Tuna wonders why we don't miss him around here?
Seattle - 38-31
Giants at Philadelphia
There's a new Rocky movie out and all the Iggles people think it's about their team. Actually, Invincible is out on DVD and that's definitely about them. And this game will be for sure about them. The Giants are not a playoff team in any other time or place. If they were in the AFC they'd be 3-13. The 7-9 Bills are a much much better team than they are. The Gints are 14th on offense and 25th in defense. Please. Not that they don't have some talent, because they do. In fact, whenever I play these guys on Xbox, they kick my butt. Eli seems to be able to hook up with his quality receivers at will, and Tiki is beyond the tackling skills of mere mortals.
Of course, they're great in theory. In reality, Eli can't hit a city bus burning at a corner stop in Queens. Tiki is elusive - but so completely annoying that nobody wants to watch him. Seriously, he had like 250 yards in the last game, and nobody knew it but the scorekeeper. You wonder if his twin brother Ronde is like a SUPER nice guy. Maybe all the selfishness and ego landed in the Tiki body, and the Ronde body just plays football?
Philly, meanwhile, is on a miracle run with Jeff Garcia at the helm. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Garcia showed every sign of being completely washed up before the season started. Nobody wanted him after dismal starting performances in Detroit and Cleveland. But that was pre-Romeo Cleveland, and post-Bobby Layne Detroit. Of course he didn't play well there. He only hit three Pro Bowls for Coach Mooch in San Francisco. Sure he had much better players around him back then (including Terrell Owens). So what? Isn't that the whole point of football? To have a better team and lead it to victory?
Meanwhile, Philly fans are going way too far in thinking that Garcia may be an answer after this year. The guy is 37 and fragile. He'll be a great back-up QB (a guy who can win a couple for you so you don't lose a whole season) for another three to four years, but that's it. McNabb is the future.
Philly - 33-10
KC at Indy
This is an intriguing match-up because KC does a few things really well, and those are the things Indy is really bad at. KC is #16 on offense and defense, but 9th in run offense. Indy is dead last at stopping the run. 32nd out of 32 teams. KC has a back who is both fast and strong. He's elusive and bone-crushing. And there's no way Indy will be able to stop him. Which is leading a lot of football pundit types to lean toward KC. But there's a reason that Indy is 12-4 and KC is 9-7. That reason is the Indy offense - #3 overall, #2 in passing. And they have the #2 pass defense, but that's meaningless. When you play the #32 rush defense, you don't put the ball in the air.
Speaking of misleading stats - do you know who has the best passing defense? Oakland. Yes, the 2-14 Raiders are #1 against the pass. Because after you get a three TD lead on them, why bother passing? I mean, you're killing them 21-0, are you going to throw for 300 yards? No. So they're 25th against the run, and you run on them all day. You kill the clock from the end of the first quarter.
So, Tony Dungy is a very bad playoff coach indeed, but has had success in the first round. So here's his first round red meat, the win that he can point to while fighting to keep his job. Sure, Indy will get their doors blown off next week in Baltimore, but who cares? They get to have a big home win this week.
Indy 31-28
Jets at NE
This is the only match-up this week where both teams have double-digit wins (12-4 NE vs. 10-6 NY). This is a Jets team that has beaten the Pats this year, and made everything difficult for them. This Jets team is coached by last year's Pats Defensive Coordinator, Eric Mangini. He knows these guys, he's coached them. He's proven he can beat them at the Razor. And, come Sunday, he's going to take an epic pounding.
Bill Belichick is the best coach in the history of the game. Tom Brady is one of the five best QB's to ever lace on cleats. The difference between the Pats and the Jets is the difference between a Corvette and a Chevette. This is the New England time of year. This is when the championship players on the roster make big plays happen and keep their cool when they need to. New England is peaking at exactly the right time. It's taken all year, but they've found their long passing game and their running game has returned. They are 11th on offense - #12 run and #12 pass - and 6th on defense.
But I also get the feeling that the score will be closer than the game. Mangini has proven that he can keep his gang together in tough times. They are 25th on offense and 20th on defense (worse than Seattle or Buffalo). But they will find a way to hang around on the scoreboard, if not the field, until the 4th quarter. I get the feeling that Belichick will not call off the dogs with a 4th quarter lead. Look for extra points dropping in, needed or not.
Then it's on to San Diego. Bill Belichick vs. Marty Schottenheimer in the playoffs.
Looking good!
Patriots - 41-17
Let's start with the JV Conference, the NFC.
Dallas at Seattle:
Dallas is 5th in the league on offense and 13th on defense. Seattle is 19th both ways. So the 5th offense gets to dance around on the head of the 19th defense, right? Well, kind of, except that Dallas has the 24th ranked pass defense. Uh oh. Sure, Seattle is on;y the 20th pass offense, but you have to remember that the forgettable Seneca Wallace started at QB for a lot of the season. Seattle will be able to pass against Dallas. That's also a bit of a mystery, because Dallas has some studs on defense. Both teams will score, but Seattle has the edge in experience and a soggy, coffee-soaked home field.
It's funny to think that this game matches Tuna Parcelles against Walrus Holmgren. Last time these two met in the playoff was when the Tuna's Pats lost to Holmgren's Packers while Parcelles was working on his exit to Brooklyn. Seriously, Parcelles was negotiating a contract with the New York Jets to go coach them while he should have been preparing to play Brett Favre and Reggie White with the Packers. And Tuna wonders why we don't miss him around here?
Seattle - 38-31
Giants at Philadelphia
There's a new Rocky movie out and all the Iggles people think it's about their team. Actually, Invincible is out on DVD and that's definitely about them. And this game will be for sure about them. The Giants are not a playoff team in any other time or place. If they were in the AFC they'd be 3-13. The 7-9 Bills are a much much better team than they are. The Gints are 14th on offense and 25th in defense. Please. Not that they don't have some talent, because they do. In fact, whenever I play these guys on Xbox, they kick my butt. Eli seems to be able to hook up with his quality receivers at will, and Tiki is beyond the tackling skills of mere mortals.
Of course, they're great in theory. In reality, Eli can't hit a city bus burning at a corner stop in Queens. Tiki is elusive - but so completely annoying that nobody wants to watch him. Seriously, he had like 250 yards in the last game, and nobody knew it but the scorekeeper. You wonder if his twin brother Ronde is like a SUPER nice guy. Maybe all the selfishness and ego landed in the Tiki body, and the Ronde body just plays football?
Philly, meanwhile, is on a miracle run with Jeff Garcia at the helm. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Garcia showed every sign of being completely washed up before the season started. Nobody wanted him after dismal starting performances in Detroit and Cleveland. But that was pre-Romeo Cleveland, and post-Bobby Layne Detroit. Of course he didn't play well there. He only hit three Pro Bowls for Coach Mooch in San Francisco. Sure he had much better players around him back then (including Terrell Owens). So what? Isn't that the whole point of football? To have a better team and lead it to victory?
Meanwhile, Philly fans are going way too far in thinking that Garcia may be an answer after this year. The guy is 37 and fragile. He'll be a great back-up QB (a guy who can win a couple for you so you don't lose a whole season) for another three to four years, but that's it. McNabb is the future.
Philly - 33-10
KC at Indy
This is an intriguing match-up because KC does a few things really well, and those are the things Indy is really bad at. KC is #16 on offense and defense, but 9th in run offense. Indy is dead last at stopping the run. 32nd out of 32 teams. KC has a back who is both fast and strong. He's elusive and bone-crushing. And there's no way Indy will be able to stop him. Which is leading a lot of football pundit types to lean toward KC. But there's a reason that Indy is 12-4 and KC is 9-7. That reason is the Indy offense - #3 overall, #2 in passing. And they have the #2 pass defense, but that's meaningless. When you play the #32 rush defense, you don't put the ball in the air.
Speaking of misleading stats - do you know who has the best passing defense? Oakland. Yes, the 2-14 Raiders are #1 against the pass. Because after you get a three TD lead on them, why bother passing? I mean, you're killing them 21-0, are you going to throw for 300 yards? No. So they're 25th against the run, and you run on them all day. You kill the clock from the end of the first quarter.
So, Tony Dungy is a very bad playoff coach indeed, but has had success in the first round. So here's his first round red meat, the win that he can point to while fighting to keep his job. Sure, Indy will get their doors blown off next week in Baltimore, but who cares? They get to have a big home win this week.
Indy 31-28
Jets at NE
This is the only match-up this week where both teams have double-digit wins (12-4 NE vs. 10-6 NY). This is a Jets team that has beaten the Pats this year, and made everything difficult for them. This Jets team is coached by last year's Pats Defensive Coordinator, Eric Mangini. He knows these guys, he's coached them. He's proven he can beat them at the Razor. And, come Sunday, he's going to take an epic pounding.
Bill Belichick is the best coach in the history of the game. Tom Brady is one of the five best QB's to ever lace on cleats. The difference between the Pats and the Jets is the difference between a Corvette and a Chevette. This is the New England time of year. This is when the championship players on the roster make big plays happen and keep their cool when they need to. New England is peaking at exactly the right time. It's taken all year, but they've found their long passing game and their running game has returned. They are 11th on offense - #12 run and #12 pass - and 6th on defense.
But I also get the feeling that the score will be closer than the game. Mangini has proven that he can keep his gang together in tough times. They are 25th on offense and 20th on defense (worse than Seattle or Buffalo). But they will find a way to hang around on the scoreboard, if not the field, until the 4th quarter. I get the feeling that Belichick will not call off the dogs with a 4th quarter lead. Look for extra points dropping in, needed or not.
Then it's on to San Diego. Bill Belichick vs. Marty Schottenheimer in the playoffs.
Looking good!
Patriots - 41-17
posted by fiduciary at 2:47 PM
1 Comments:
I'm with you on the Indy-KC and Pats-Jets picks (although I think the Pats-Jets will be a little closter), but I think Dallas is going to beat up on an overrated Seattle team (another team that has no business being in the playoffs) and I think the Eagles are going to have their hands full with a terrible Giants team. The Eagles can definitely be run on and they always have problems with Burress and Shockey, so I think that game comes down to a FG in the last 2 minutes. Either way it should be a great weekend of football!
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