Half Games and the Patriots Draft
The NFL Draft has become a fantastic bread-and-circuses event that keeps the fire burning in the hearts of football fans over a long offseason. The NFL actually has a short season, though it likely doesn't seem that way to non-fans. The season lasts 21 weeks (not counting the excruciating pre-season). Each team plays 16 games - compare that to the 82 played in the NBA and NHL, and the 162 played in pro baseball.
16 is not a large enough number to tell anything statistically. The minimum sample size for statistical significance is 30 - almost two football seasons. It's why football seems like such a life-and-death struggle - every game is a five-game stretch in basketball or hockey, and a whopping 10-game swing in baseball. Can you imagine the Sox or the Jays losing (or winning) 10 straight?
In an effort overcome this limit, I took a few minutes and broke the 2015 NFL season down to half-games. For each game played, I gave the team that was leading at halftime one win. If they were tied at the half, they get half a point each. The tricky part was to give teams that scored more in the second half a full point. In the case of the Pats 50-point blowout of the Bears, the Chicago second half garbage time point gave them a split (one point each for each half victory) in what was a coach-killing loss.
The idea was that although teams were not pulling out all the stops to be ahead at halftime the way they would at the end of the game to get the win, teams were still trying to beat the other guy with all their ability, and the efforts at the end of the half to eek out a few more points are similar enough to end-of-game conditions to make it worth having a look, at least.
Here's the list, with playoff teams in colour. It compares the half record with the full record and shows the difference.
The biggest surprise is the Eagles, who had the best record in the NFC by halves, but finished out of the playoffs. Also look at the Buccaneers - their 39% half wins was much larger than their 12% full wins. And Washington was the worst team in the league, edging out the Raiders.
Getting back to the draft, I think there's something revealing about the Pats selections. To my shock and dismay, they let Revis Island (and Brandon Browner) walk in the offseason. I understand the financial numbers were pretty crazy, but the presence of Revis was a big reason that the team broke back through the Super Bowl barrier after a decade.
As the Seahawks have loudly demonstrated, the most difficult - and most valuable - thing a team can do in todays NFL is to defend the pass. The rules are changed yearly for one reason: get the ball moving. No more suffocating defenses, no more 'three yards and a cloud of dust' offenses. Seattle used top players and a solid scheme to stop that trend, and nearly won back-to-back Super Bowls doing it.
Along came New England with top notch man defenders and a fantastic Free Safety. Suddenly, they could stop teams on third down. They were winning because they could cover Stafford-to-Megatron but you couldn't cover Brady to whoever. Without Revis, they become very ordinary in the backfield.
But there's another way to stop the pass. Get to the QB. He can't tear up your crappy CB's from his back. The Pats haven't had a great pass rush since Bruschi and Seymour - maybe since Tippett and Blackmon. But could that change next year?
Their 2014 #1 pick was a fast penetrating DT named Dominique Easley. They have former #1 pick DE Chandler Jones to line up next to him. The 2015 #1 pick was DT Malcom Brown, who is supposed to be a blue-chipper. They signed DE Jaabal Sheard from Cleveland. And DE Rob Ninkovich is a try-hard guy who has really made a name for himself. And they spent 3rd, 4th, and 7th round picks of pass rushers to stick on the line and allow everyone to attack with fresh legs.
So will Belichick go back to crashing the pocket? It's a risky approach, because if the other team's line is up to the challenge, the Pats don't have a lot of firepower in the backfield to cover if the rush doesn't get there. The other risk is that without the non-pass rushing presence of DT Vince Wilfork (now with Houston) there is a risk that a power-running team (Seattle anyone?) with build a highway over them.
Time will tell. Certainly the other three teams in the division are using a similar approach. Miami signed Ndamukong Suh to go with Cameron Wake on their DL. The Jets have a murderer's row on their line, and the Bills have a former first overall pick - DE Mario Williams - to go with the devastating Marcell Darius. Tom Brady should take out some extra insurance this offseason.
But then, so should the QB's playing on the other side, too.
16 is not a large enough number to tell anything statistically. The minimum sample size for statistical significance is 30 - almost two football seasons. It's why football seems like such a life-and-death struggle - every game is a five-game stretch in basketball or hockey, and a whopping 10-game swing in baseball. Can you imagine the Sox or the Jays losing (or winning) 10 straight?
In an effort overcome this limit, I took a few minutes and broke the 2015 NFL season down to half-games. For each game played, I gave the team that was leading at halftime one win. If they were tied at the half, they get half a point each. The tricky part was to give teams that scored more in the second half a full point. In the case of the Pats 50-point blowout of the Bears, the Chicago second half garbage time point gave them a split (one point each for each half victory) in what was a coach-killing loss.
The idea was that although teams were not pulling out all the stops to be ahead at halftime the way they would at the end of the game to get the win, teams were still trying to beat the other guy with all their ability, and the efforts at the end of the half to eek out a few more points are similar enough to end-of-game conditions to make it worth having a look, at least.
Here's the list, with playoff teams in colour. It compares the half record with the full record and shows the difference.
A couple of observations. The only game that was a throw-away was the Pats loss to the Bills in week 17. The Pats rested the key starters and the Bills won to give them a winning record for the year - yeah, hoo-ray. That win would put the Pats as the clear #1 in the league (instead of tied with Denver).
The Chiefs got hosed pretty badly, winning 61% of their halves but only 56% of their games and finishing out of the playoffs, but ahead of a lucky Ravens team (6% above their half record) and a very lucky Steelers team (11% above half record).
The biggest surprise is the Eagles, who had the best record in the NFC by halves, but finished out of the playoffs. Also look at the Buccaneers - their 39% half wins was much larger than their 12% full wins. And Washington was the worst team in the league, edging out the Raiders.
Getting back to the draft, I think there's something revealing about the Pats selections. To my shock and dismay, they let Revis Island (and Brandon Browner) walk in the offseason. I understand the financial numbers were pretty crazy, but the presence of Revis was a big reason that the team broke back through the Super Bowl barrier after a decade.
As the Seahawks have loudly demonstrated, the most difficult - and most valuable - thing a team can do in todays NFL is to defend the pass. The rules are changed yearly for one reason: get the ball moving. No more suffocating defenses, no more 'three yards and a cloud of dust' offenses. Seattle used top players and a solid scheme to stop that trend, and nearly won back-to-back Super Bowls doing it.
Along came New England with top notch man defenders and a fantastic Free Safety. Suddenly, they could stop teams on third down. They were winning because they could cover Stafford-to-Megatron but you couldn't cover Brady to whoever. Without Revis, they become very ordinary in the backfield.
But there's another way to stop the pass. Get to the QB. He can't tear up your crappy CB's from his back. The Pats haven't had a great pass rush since Bruschi and Seymour - maybe since Tippett and Blackmon. But could that change next year?
Their 2014 #1 pick was a fast penetrating DT named Dominique Easley. They have former #1 pick DE Chandler Jones to line up next to him. The 2015 #1 pick was DT Malcom Brown, who is supposed to be a blue-chipper. They signed DE Jaabal Sheard from Cleveland. And DE Rob Ninkovich is a try-hard guy who has really made a name for himself. And they spent 3rd, 4th, and 7th round picks of pass rushers to stick on the line and allow everyone to attack with fresh legs.
So will Belichick go back to crashing the pocket? It's a risky approach, because if the other team's line is up to the challenge, the Pats don't have a lot of firepower in the backfield to cover if the rush doesn't get there. The other risk is that without the non-pass rushing presence of DT Vince Wilfork (now with Houston) there is a risk that a power-running team (Seattle anyone?) with build a highway over them.
Time will tell. Certainly the other three teams in the division are using a similar approach. Miami signed Ndamukong Suh to go with Cameron Wake on their DL. The Jets have a murderer's row on their line, and the Bills have a former first overall pick - DE Mario Williams - to go with the devastating Marcell Darius. Tom Brady should take out some extra insurance this offseason.
But then, so should the QB's playing on the other side, too.
posted by fiduciary at 3:42 PM
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