Monday, March 02, 2015

MH370 - Now That's a Conspiracy Theory, My Friend

Jeff Wise, pilot and science writer, has written a Sistine Chapel of a conspiracy theory about the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines MH370 a year ago next week.  Really, this one has it all, and I don't mean that in my usual snide, more-cynical-than-thou sense.  I pretty much believe this one.  It's just crazy enough to be true. 

My fascination with this disappearance started as soon as I heard about it, which was about two hours after it happened.  See, I was on a Boeing 777 (same kind of plane) over the South China Sea at the same time MH370 disappeared.  It was two hours into a four-hour flight to Indonesia.  Of course the news wasn't broadcast to passengers - thinking back, I wonder if they cut the news feeds?  Hmmm. 

It also stands out because one of my colleagues, before I left for Asia, had told a meeting full of people (regarding my impending departure): "I hope the plane crashes and he dies.  I just hate him."  Too bad I missed that meeting!  Stay classy, Waterloo! 

Those words came immediately to mind as I followed the story as well as I could during my stay in Jakarta and through several subsequent weeks in Asia.  It just seemed so bizarre - how was it that there was no radio transmission?  If it was a terror attack why did it stay in the sky for seven hours after it stopped communicating? 

The article is great, I strongly recommend it.  It follows Wise's appearances on CNN as an expert with some insider anecdotes.  Fun.

What's really fun is the compelling case he makes for his theory. Go read it now if you haven't already - I spoil it below.

So...  Spoiler alert.

There.  Putin has the plane and the passengers.  But why?  Will it turn up on the anniversary of its disappearance?  Doubtful. 

That's sort of the sad thing (aside from the obvious).  If the Russians took the plane, they could not let those people live.  There's too much danger that over a period of years some of them would be able to connect with their families.  If any of those people ever emerge, the game is up. 

Of course, most of the victims were (are?) Chinese.  That secretive country might be able to swing a backroom deal with the Russians.  If anybody could pull it off, it would be China. 

What would be the motive?  Wise suggests a few but none are really compelling.  If this really happened, I think it would simply be a message to the West from Putin:  'I'm capable of doing this sort of thing.'  Remember - he was career KGB.

And I've always thought the Americans know what happened.  They are so paranoid and militaristic, there's no way they missed this.  The US Navy spent decades mapping and monitoring the oceans.  The plane didn't hit the water and disappear where the US Navy couldn't find it.  Same in the air.  The US Air Force knows where your kid threw his paper airplane and what kind of kite he likes.  We know from a slip decades ago by Richard Nixon that we read the radar of other countries.  And with the NSA making a real-time copy of the internet (hello Mr. NSA Analyst!  Do you like my blog?) and all the electronic signals they can get, it's inconceivable that they don't know. 

Anyway, Wise makes a great case, and I don't see any loopholes.  I particularly like that he looked at the mysterious ethnic Russian Ukrainian passengers:

 
Are you kidding?  They look like extras in "Licence To Kill." 
 
Which is where I put the brakes on and remind myself that this is just a crazy conspiracy theory and in all likelihood these gentlemen have been killed in a tragic accident.  Sorry.
 
Still - intriguing. 

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