Champs

So much for the three-peat. The Patriots and their consecutive Super Bowl championships are officially finished for the year. That's not to say they're finished for good. As long as Bill Belichick is coaching and Tom Brady is starting at quarterback, this team will compete. But not this year.

There are five basic elements to football, and the Patriots have gone from excelling at all five to only doing well at one. Those elements are: passing offense, rushing offense, passing defense, rushing defense, and special teams.

There are two reasons for this fall from grace. The first in injuries. While they've overcome more harm than any other champion in league history - or the history of team sports I'd wager - this year the back-ups aren't cutting it. Perhaps that's because the guys who were the great back-ups over the past couple of years are now the starters and their back-ups are the tertiary guys who really can't play.

The other reason is coaching. The team's biggest problem is their defense - and the defense is being run by a first-year coordinator. Eric Mangini was widely credited with keeping the defensive secondary together in the face of injuries over the past two years. Last year in particular, he lost his two starting corners and won a Super Bowl with street guys and WR Troy Brown - even shutting down the Colts' record-setting offense in the playoffs.

On the strength of that performance, young (under 40) Mangini was given the Defensive Coordinator job - and he deigned to take it over some other, more lucrative offers from other teams.

But for all his service in past seasons, the defense is just dreadful this year. They have been decimated by injuries, but were not that great before the loss of key guys like Rodney Harrison. Is it Mangini's fault, or were the players set for a let-down no matter what?

Ultimately, it is the responsibility of the Head Coach, and Belichick has allowed himself to be distracted from his defense by coaching the offense himself. Instead of even having a caretaker coordinator, he's taken the role himself, with the help of a few key assistants - who are also young coaches. That's a lot of responsibility for anyone - even Bill Belichick.

For the first time in many years, the Patriots defense is bad. They can't get off the field on 3rd down. They can't plug anyone in short yardage. They can't stop the run. They can't cover the pass. The Colts hung 40 on them last night - and it was a solid 40. There were no big special teams plays, no defensive returns - no excuses. The defense was pushed around all night. Every time Manning went back to pass, somebody was wide open.

It didn't help that CB Randall Gay was playing Harrison's position. Gay can cover, but he'll never be mistaken for Ty Law or Lawyer Milloy. Dwayne Starks has completely lost his game - he can't cover leftover salad. Colts' receivers beat these guys on-on-one, and the beat the Pats' zone, finding huge holes and standing in them until Manning got the ball to them.

Eggerin James looked like he could have run for 200 - if the passing game hadn't been working so well.

In their current state, the Patriots passing offense remains outstanding - Brady and his receivers are more dangerous than ever. But the rushing offense is no longer a threat. Belichick didn't bring enough RB's into the season, and is suffering for it now. Feature back Corey Dillon has been hurt all year, and the injuries on the offensive line have taken the legs from the running game.

Matt Light was the key to the quality of the OL. As long as he was anchoring at LT, the rest of the guys could work around him. Without Light, Brady is savvy enough to get rid of the ball, but there's no amount of savvy that will save Dillon.

With Patrick Pass injured, the Pats signed Amos Zeroue - only to release him. They also got Mike Cloud off the street this week, and even played him a bit, but he was predictably ineffective. When Dillon was out of the lineup last night, the offense went with no back most of the time. That's a tough position to be in repeatedly.

Basic changes to the defense - the kind that the Pats need - can only happen in training camp. No team can turn around a bad defense in mid-season. There was some hope that they could improve after their bye week, but obviously that didn't make a whole lot of difference. What we have now is what we have for the season.

So what does the rest of the season hold for this flawed team? They've only played one division game (they beat Buffalo) in the first half of their schedule (which finished last night at 4-4). The final 8 games feature an away game at Buffalo, home and away at NY and Miami, and games against KC, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans.

Buffalo and Tampa Bay will be real challenges. Miami and the Jets will be less so, as both teams are sufficiently flawed. A 10-6 or 9-7 final record will win this division, but the playoffs don't look so good this morning. A rematch in Indy won't be much of a treat this year.

The best case scenario would be getting Cory healthy again and getting the OL to run block better, and then winning some shoot-outs. The Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Bucs, and Saints all have serious issues at QB, so it's not inconceivable that they could survive the second half and get to the playoffs as a high-scoring team, and maybe even win a playoff game like that.

But our likely opponents have already taken our best shot and knocked us down - Indy and Denver.

The last time we missed the playoffs it was because the defense got old and Belichick hadn't recognized it in the offseason. The 2002 teams was similar to this one - except their offense wasn't as good. They were beaten repeatedly by the run and the pass on defense, and couldn't run on offense.

It was their failure to win the division that saved a lot of Brady and Belichick's post-season records. After all, Brady wouldn't be undefeated in the payoffs if they'd squeaked in in 2002.

But if any team has earned its fan's patience, it's this one.

Go Pats! We're still behind you!